Opening weekend numbers don’t just show how many people showed up on Friday night-they’re the first real signal of whether a movie will live or die. But here’s the thing most people miss: a huge opening doesn’t guarantee a hit. And a modest start doesn’t mean failure. What really matters is what happens after that first weekend. That’s where multipliers and legs come in.
What Is a Multiplier?
A multiplier is how much a movie earns in total compared to its opening weekend. If a film makes $50 million in its first three days and ends up with $200 million total, its multiplier is 4.0. That means it kept drawing crowds for weeks. A multiplier of 2.5 or higher is considered strong. Anything below 2.0 usually means the movie burned out fast.
Think of it like a car’s fuel efficiency. A big engine (big opening) means you go fast at first, but if you’re burning through gas too quickly, you won’t make it far. A movie with a 4.5 multiplier? That’s a hybrid-efficient, steady, and capable of long-distance travel.
Blockbusters like Barbie (2023) had a multiplier of 5.2. It opened with $162 million and finished with $845 million. Why? Because people kept going back. It wasn’t just a one-time event-it became a cultural moment. On the flip side, The Marvels opened with $102 million but only pulled in $250 million total. That’s a multiplier of 2.4. It didn’t die, but it didn’t thrive either. The buzz faded fast.
What Are Legs?
Legs are how well a movie holds up after opening. It’s measured by the percentage drop from one weekend to the next. A movie with strong legs loses less than 30% in its second weekend. A movie with weak legs drops 60% or more.
Here’s a real example: Oppenheimer opened with $80 million in July 2023. Its second weekend? It dropped only 22%. That’s rare. Most big movies drop 50-70%. Why? Because audiences didn’t just go for the spectacle-they went to talk about it. People brought friends. They went again. It stayed in theaters for months.
Compare that to Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (2023). It opened with $65 million, then lost 68% the next weekend. That’s not a drop-it’s a crash. The movie had no legs. People saw it once, decided it wasn’t worth a second look, and moved on.
Why Opening Weekend Alone Is Misleading
Media loves big numbers. Headlines scream “$150 MILLION OPENING!” But that’s like judging a marathon runner by their first 100 meters. You need to see how they hold up over 26 miles.
Some movies open huge because of hype, nostalgia, or over-marketing. Spider-Man: No Way Home opened with $260 million in 2021. That’s insane. But it also had a multiplier of 5.8. Why? Because fans didn’t just show up-they brought their whole family, their friends, their coworkers. It became an event you didn’t want to miss.
Other movies open modestly and climb. Get Out (2017) opened with $33 million. That’s not huge. But it had a multiplier of 11.5. It ended with $255 million. Why? Because word of mouth exploded. People left theaters talking. Social media lit up. The movie didn’t need a $100 million marketing budget-it just needed to be good.
Opening weekend is a starting gun. Legs and multipliers are the race.
How Studios Use Multipliers to Decide What to Do Next
Studios don’t just watch opening weekends-they watch the pattern. If a movie drops less than 35% in week two, they’ll often extend its run, push more ads, or even greenlight a sequel before the first film even hits theaters.
Look at Avatar: The Way of Water. It opened with $134 million in December 2022. Week two? Only a 27% drop. Week three? Another 29%. That’s not luck. That’s momentum. The studio kept promoting it. They didn’t treat it like a typical holiday release. They treated it like a cultural event. It went on to earn $2.9 billion.
On the other hand, if a movie drops 70% in week two, studios often pull ads, cut marketing spend, and quietly move on. They don’t waste money on a sinking ship.
This is why some movies vanish from theaters after two weeks, even if they made $100 million. They had no legs. No multiplier. No reason to keep showing them.
The Role of Reviews and Word of Mouth
Opening weekend is mostly driven by trailers, social media buzz, and star power. But after that? It’s all about what people say.
A movie with a 90%+ score on Rotten Tomatoes usually has strong legs. Everything Everywhere All at Once opened with $14 million. Critics loved it. Audiences loved it. It had a multiplier of 7.8. It didn’t need to open huge-it just needed to be unforgettable.
Conversely, a movie with a 60% score and a terrible CinemaScore (like “C+”) usually dies fast. Black Adam opened with $82 million in 2022. But audiences gave it a “C-”. The next weekend? A 65% drop. It never recovered.
Here’s the truth: audiences are smarter than marketing teams. If a movie feels cheap, rushed, or hollow, they’ll tell their friends. And that’s the end of the legs.
What You Can Predict From the First Three Days
You can’t predict the exact total, but you can predict the range.
Here’s a simple rule: if a movie opens with $50 million or more and drops less than 40% in week two, it’s likely to make at least 3x its opening. That’s a safe bet.
If it opens with $20 million and drops 50%? It’s probably done by week three.
But the real signal? The second weekend. That’s when you see if the movie has staying power. A movie that opens with $40 million and holds at $25 million in week two? That’s a sleeper hit. It might not break records, but it’ll make money for months.
And here’s the kicker: movies that open under $20 million but have a multiplier over 4.0 are often the most profitable. They cost less to make. They don’t need to break records. They just need to last.
What’s Changing in 2025?
Streaming has changed the game. More people wait for a movie to hit Peacock or Max. But that doesn’t kill theatrical success-it just changes the rules.
Now, studios look for movies that can dominate theaters for 6-8 weeks. If a movie can stay in the top 10 for two months, it still makes money-even if it never hits $500 million.
Also, international markets matter more than ever. A movie that opens weakly in the U.S. but crushes in India, Brazil, or South Korea can still turn a profit. RRR (2022) opened with $2 million in the U.S. but made $180 million globally. Its multiplier? 12.1.
So now, studios watch global opening weekends, not just domestic. And they track legs across countries-not just in North America.
Final Takeaway: The Real Test Is Week Two
Don’t get fooled by opening weekend fireworks. That’s just the trailer. The real movie starts after that.
Look at the drop. Look at the multiplier. Look at the reviews. If a movie keeps people coming back, it’s a success-even if it didn’t open big. If it crashes after Friday, it’s already over.
The best box office predictions aren’t made by analysts with spreadsheets. They’re made by the people who walk out of the theater and tell their friends: ‘You have to see this.’
What does a good box office multiplier look like?
A multiplier of 3.0 or higher is considered strong. It means the movie earned at least three times its opening weekend. Blockbusters like Barbie (5.2) and Get Out (11.5) had exceptional multipliers. Anything below 2.0 usually means the movie lost momentum quickly and didn’t sustain interest.
Can a movie with a small opening weekend still be successful?
Yes. Movies like Get Out and Parasite opened with under $20 million but ended up earning hundreds of millions because of strong word of mouth and long legs. Low-budget films with high multipliers often turn the biggest profits because their production costs are lower.
How important is the second weekend for box office success?
The second weekend is the most telling. If a movie drops less than 40%, it likely has strong legs and can sustain a long run. A drop over 60% usually signals a quick fade. Studios use this data to decide whether to keep advertising or pull the plug.
Do streaming releases affect box office legs?
Yes. More people now wait for streaming, so studios need movies to hold strong for 6-8 weeks to justify theatrical runs. But films that create buzz-like Oppenheimer-still draw crowds even with streaming options. The key is making the theater experience feel essential, not replaceable.
Why do some movies perform better internationally than in the U.S.?
Cultural relevance, marketing focus, and release timing all play a role. RRR and The Super Mario Bros. Movie made more overseas than domestically because they connected with global audiences in ways that didn’t rely on U.S.-centric humor or nostalgia. Studios now track international legs as closely as domestic ones.
