2026 Oscar Predictions: Best Director Race Heats Up with Anderson, Coogler, and Zhao Leading the Pack

Paul Thomas Anderson Is the Frontrunner - But Is It His Time?

When it comes to the 2026 Best Director Oscar, Paul Thomas Anderson is the name everyone’s talking about. His film One Battle After Another, a sprawling, emotionally raw drama starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Regina Hall, has a 95 Metascore and leads Best Picture predictions at 87% confidence. Anderson’s been nominated for directing three times before - for There Will Be Blood, The Master, and Phantom Thread - but never won. He’s been nominated 11 times total across directing, writing, and producing, making him one of the most decorated directors in Oscar history without a win. This year, voters might finally feel it’s time to close that chapter. Critics say the film isn’t his absolute best, but it’s the kind of bold, ambitious work the Academy tends to reward when it’s been waiting so long.

Why Ryan Coogler Could Finally Break Through

Ryan Coogler has directed two of the highest-grossing films of the last decade - Black Panther and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - and yet, he’s never been nominated for Best Director. That’s not just odd, it’s rare. Directors like Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman) and Colin Trevorrow (Jurassic World) are in the same boat: massive commercial success, zero directing nods. Sinners, Coogler’s 2025 film, is a gritty, character-driven story about redemption and family, with a performance from Michael B. Jordan that’s already being called career-best. The Academy’s membership has changed since 2015 - more women, more people of color - and Coogler’s work speaks directly to that new electorate. If Sinners lands a Best Picture nomination (currently at 52.7% odds), a directing nod is almost guaranteed.

Chloé Zhao: Can She Make It Two Wins?

Chloé Zhao made history in 2021 as the first woman of color to win Best Director for Nomadland. Now, she’s back with Hamnet, a quiet, poetic adaptation of Shakespeare’s grief-stricken play about the death of his son. It’s a film that doesn’t shout - it whispers. And that’s exactly what works in her favor. The Academy loves directors who can find deep emotion in stillness. Zhao’s previous win gives her a huge advantage: voters remember her, and they trust her. Todd Thatcher’s analysis says she’s a “probable safe bet” for a directing nomination, even more so than for Best Picture. If she gets in, she’ll be the first woman to win Best Director twice - and only the third woman ever nominated in the category.

Kathryn Bigelow and the Wild Card Factor

Kathryn Bigelow won Best Director in 2010 for The Hurt Locker, becoming the first - and only - woman to win until Zhao in 2021. Her 2025 film, A House of Dynamite, is a tense, politically charged thriller about a female bomb squad leader in a war-torn city. Early reviews are strong, but not as overwhelmingly ecstatic as Anderson’s or Zhao’s. Some critics are wondering if it’s just good, or truly Oscar-worthy. The Academy’s voting system is tricky: a film needs support across multiple branches to survive the preferential ballot. Bigelow’s film has the kind of subject matter that often appeals to the Directors Branch, but without a clear Best Picture push, her chances drop. Right now, she’s at 46.8% odds - close, but not a lock.

Jafar Panahi: The Director Who Was Imprisoned for Making Films

Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident is one of the most surprising entries in this race. Panahi, an Iranian filmmaker, was imprisoned in 2010 for “propaganda against the regime” and banned from making movies for 20 years. He kept working anyway - secretly, under constant surveillance. His 2015 film Taxi won the Golden Bear at Berlin but got zero Oscar attention. This time, it’s different. It Was Just an Accident is a surreal, darkly funny, deeply human film shot entirely in a car, with Panahi himself as the driver. Critics say he “threads an incredible tonal needle” between comedy and tragedy. The Academy’s membership has shifted dramatically since 2015 - nearly half of new members are from underrepresented communities. Panahi’s film isn’t just art; it’s a statement. If voters want to honor courage as much as craft, he’s a real threat.

Park Chan-wook and the International Wildcard

Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice is a visually stunning, psychologically intense revenge thriller that’s already won awards in Venice and Cannes. But here’s the catch: no Korean director has ever been nominated for Best Director. Park’s Decision to Leave got a nomination for Best International Feature in 2023 - but not for directing. The Academy has a history of separating international films from the top directing category, even when they’re brilliant. No Other Choice might need a Best Picture nod to get Park in. Right now, that’s a 50/50 call. If it happens, he’d join Bong Joon-ho as only the second Asian director ever nominated for Best Director.

Who’s Out - And Why

Some names you expected to see? They’re gone. After the Hunt, directed by Mike Flanagan, bombed critically and commercially, with a 32% Rotten Tomatoes score and only $4.7 million at the box office. Edward Berger, Spike Lee, and Luca Guadagnino are also out of the running this year. Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly and Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good are still on the bubble - they’ll need their films to land Best Picture nominations to have any shot. The same goes for Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia. The rule of thumb? If your film isn’t in the Best Picture top 10, your director chances are slim. The numbers don’t lie: 94.7% of Best Director nominees from 2010 to 2025 were also in the Best Picture lineup.

What the New Academy Membership Means

The Oscar voting body isn’t what it used to be. In 2025, 41% of new members were women, and 49% were from underrepresented racial or ethnic groups. That’s not just a trend - it’s a transformation. Directors like Zhao, Bigelow, and Panahi benefit directly from this shift. The Academy used to favor white, male, American auteurs. Now, they’re looking for voices that reflect the world. That’s why Panahi’s film has a real shot, and why Coogler’s long-overdue nomination feels inevitable. It’s not about politics - it’s about who gets to tell stories, and who gets to decide who wins.

The Math Behind the Nominations

The Oscar nomination process isn’t a simple vote. Since 2010, the Academy has used a preferential ballot for Best Director. Voters rank their top five choices. If no one hits 5% of first-place votes, the lowest-ranked director gets eliminated, and their votes are redistributed. This repeats until five nominees are left. That means a director doesn’t need to be the most popular - just widely respected across different voting branches. Anderson’s film has strong support from the Actor’s Branch (thanks to DiCaprio and Taylor), the Writers Branch (he wrote it), and the Directors Branch (he’s a legend). That’s the sweet spot. Coogler and Zhao are strong in the same areas. Panahi? He’s got the Directors Branch and the International Branch. That’s enough to make him dangerous.

Final Predictions: Who Gets Nominated?

Based on current odds and historical patterns, here’s the most likely Best Director lineup for the 98th Academy Awards:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler - Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao - Hamnet
4. Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident
5. Kathryn Bigelow - A House of Dynamite

It’s a historic slate: two women, one Iranian exile, one Black American auteur, and one American icon finally getting his due. The ceremony is on February 28, 2026. Nominations drop on January 15. Whoever wins, this race already changed the game.